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Scientists this week doubled the official estimate of the size of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, with more than 40,000 barrels of oil feared to be leaking from the seabed every day – but no one knows for sure.

BP has consistently played down the size of the spill. But with each new technique it deploys to siphon off more oil, the scale of the disaster and BP's hopelessly optimistic estimates become ever more apparent.

The new figure of between 20,000 and 40,000 barrels dwarfs the original estimate by US authorities – based on information provided by BP and endorsed by the oil company – that the spill was just 1,000 barrels of oil per day. As recently as the end of last month, the official estimate was still as low as 5,000 barrels. This was only revised following the release by BP – under pressure from scientists and the US Congress – of new video footage of the leak at the sea bed.

The most accurate way to measure the size of the spill is against the amount BP is collecting in its attempts to contain the leak. If next month BP starts to collect 50,000 barrels of oil per day, this will confirm that the original estimates massively understated the scale of the environmental catastrophe.

Democrat Ed Markey has accused BP of lying about the size of the spill to limit the financial impact on the company, an allegation that BP not surprisingly denies. The company faces fines of up to $4,300 for each spilt barrel.

BP has always admitted publicly that the official estimates were impossible to verify but in private briefings to the press it has quoted the figures with more certainty. When the Guardian challenged BP on the accuracy of the 5,000-barrel estimate last month, Kent Wells, a senior vice-president based in Houston, admitted that there was no way of knowing for sure how much oil was spewing into the Gulf. "It could be 1,000 barrels or 5,000 barrels," he said, but at no point did he specify that the amount could be higher than the official estimate.

If oil has been flowing at the top end of the current estimate – 40,000 barrels per day – a total of 2m barrels will have gushed into the Gulf to date. This would make it eight times worse than the Exxon Valdez spill in 1989.

The Gulf of Mexico spill is currently about a fifth of the size of the 1990 Persian Gulf spill caused by Saddam Hussein blowing up the Kuwaiti oilfields.

In August, the first of two relief wells is expected to be completed, which BP hopes will mean the leaking reservoir can be plugged permanently.

Police searched people entering the camp site near the power station

Kent Police are to pay compensation to three people who were unlawfully searched during a demonstration at a power station, lawyers have said.

Twins, then aged 11, and campaigner David Morris were attending a "climate camp" at Kingsnorth power station in 2008 when they were searched.

At the High Court in January, police admitted the searches were unlawful.

The solicitor who led the case called the police action a "massive violation of the human right to protest".

The twins, a boy and a girl who cannot be identified, and Mr Morris were among protesters who were processed through airport-style "checkpoints", their lawyers told the High Court.

They were taking part in the climate camp demonstration against plans for a new coal-fired facility at the power station near Hoo.

'Disrupt power'

Lawyers for Kent Police told the High Court there had been a "misapplication of a clear policy by officers on the ground" which led to the unlawful searches.

Solicitor John Halford, acting for the demonstrators, said: "Kent Police has been forced to make a remarkable admission, thanks to this test case.

Colouring books were among the items police removed in searches

"It is that the outcome of one of the most expensive policing operations ever in the UK was a massive violation of the human right to protest."

Kent Police Assistant Chief Constable, Andy Adams, admitted on Thursday that "a number" of searches should not have happened at Kingsnorth.

But he added: "The publicly declared aim of some protesters was to break into Kingsnorth power station, an action which could have had the consequence of disrupting power supplies to a great number of people in Kent and could also have caused death or serious injury to anyone trespassing on the site.

"The police operation itself was very successful in preventing criminality and harm, while at the same time enabling a protest around an issue of genuine public concern to go ahead.

"We have accepted that many people were searched as a result of officer briefings which took place at the time of Climate Camp.

"A number of these searches should not have happened."

'Intimidation and violence'

The news of the payout comes after heavy criticism of Kent Police from demonstrators and politicians in the wake of the climate camp.

The Liberal Democrats claimed in a report that police had used sleep depravation tactics and threatening behaviour to compile data on protesters.

And the then police minister, Vernon Coaker, apologised in the House of Commons for telling parliament that 70 officers were injured dealing with the protests.

Police made 100 arrests during the week-long climate camp

His comments came after it was revealed that injuries Kent Police claimed had been sustained during the climate camp included insect stings, toothache and heat exhaustion.

It was also revealed that among items confiscated by officers during searches were a clown outfit, blankets, balloons and colouring books.

Sarah Horne, who took part in the climate camp, said: "We held a week-long public camp, packed with workshops, talks, action planning and demonstrations of sustainable living.

"We were met by a policing operation based on harassment, intimidation and violence.

"It wasn't just the unlawful searches - hundreds of people's possessions were seized, from walking sticks to crayons to health and safety supplies.

"This week, Kent Police have offered compensation to three people, but thousands of members of the public were searched, attacked or otherwise harassed at the 2008 camp.

"Are Kent Police going to compensate and apologise to them all?"

Radiohead frontman Thom Yorke has warned budding music stars to abandon any dreams of signing with a major label, claiming the mainstream recording industry is dying.

Yorke, 41, who made his fortune from six albums recorded with EMI, has told talented young musicians to make it on their own without the help of massive recording contracts.

He offers the pessimistic advice in a rare interview for a new school textbook in which he is asked what advice he would give teenagers who wanted to make a difference with their music.

Yorke claims the mainstream music industry is dying and that this will be "no great loss to the world" before telling aspiring musicians not to tie themselves to the "sinking ship".

Yorke suggests it will be "only a matter of time -- months rather than years -- before the music business establishment completely folds". After recording six albums with EMI, Radiohead split acrimoniously from the label when they failed to agree new terms.

In 2007, the band released their seventh album, In Rainbows, as an internet download for which fans could pay whatever they felt was appropriate.

Yorke was speaking to the authors of a new textbook for citizenship studies, The Rax Active Citizenship Toolkit, which aims to inspire young people to become more politically literate.

EMI's new executive chairman today claimed the label was on a "firm foundation for growth" despite its debts. Charles Allen said EMI, which owes its bank, Citigroup, about £3 billion, has more than trebled cash generation at its recorded music division.

 

There was great excitement in Bath last week when reports of otter sightings on the river Avon near the city centre were referred to Avon Wildlife Trust. And only the week before we had had an excited phone call from a cyclist on the Bristol to Bath cycle path who heard what he thought was the plop of a large fish as he ate his sandwich by the river bank – only to find himself staring into the eyes of a large otter.

This is all great news for this magnificent river creature, says James Field, the Trust's otter specialist, who welcomed the recent sightings, and said: "The fact that there appear to have been a number of sightings from the same stretch of river may indicate that a female has taken up residence nearby and may have cubs. This is really exciting news!"

He explained that in the 1980s otters had been all but eradicated through a combination of water pollution and habitat loss. However, thanks to strict legal protection, improving habitats and a lot of work by conservation bodies like the wildlife Trusts, we have been seeing welcome signs in recent years that they have been starting to recover. On the river otters are top predators. They are natural explorers and will travel freely through the South West's network of rivers, streams and canals where they hunt fish and eels (along with the odd amphibian, small mammal or even duckling!). For an otter, the River Avon is a motorway, with plenty of service stations, running through the South West, and it's unthinkable that they wouldn't be using it.

However, it is still a rare privilege to actually see an otter in the flesh. Just being in the right place at the right time to catch a glimpse is a lottery with long odds. Any record of an otter is still an important piece of information that we can use to make sure that the catastrophe of the 20th century doesn't happen again. Becoming an otter spotter requires sharp eyes; they are shy, solitary, mainly nocturnal, very accomplished swimmers, and may occupy a territory including 40kms or more of watercourse. Otters use their droppings – spraint – to mark their territories and communicate with other otters.

James is always interested to hear about 'spraint' finds but he is especially keen to know if anyone finds a dead otter

He says: "It sounds macabre but, sadly, the bodies of otters killed in traffic accidents are sometimes found lying at roadsides and we can learn a huge amount from autopsies. As with spraint, the message is don't move or touch it. Just tell us where the body is, and we'll collect it."

James welcomes volunteers in the Avon and Somerset area where they can contribute to the North Somerset Otter Group – email jamesfield@avonwildlifetrust.org.uk or send sightings of otters to your local Wildlife Trust via www.wildlifetrusts.org.uk.

I saw an otter in the Avon near Victoria Bridge at 6am on
April 29th, 'towing' what looked to be a large fish, heading
westwards. It turned half around in the water to have a look at me -
which was delightful!

Arctic icebergs float in a bay near Ammassalik island, Greenland. US figures show that arctic sea ice is now at the lowest extent ever recorded for the time of year. Photograph: John McConnico/AP

New data from some of the world's leading climate researchers and institutions suggest that 2010 is shaping up to be one of the warmest years ever recorded.

Scientists at the US National Snow and Ice Centre Data Centre (NSIDC) report today that Arctic sea ice – frozen seawater that floats on the ocean surface – is now at its lowest physical extent ever recorded for the time of year, suggesting that it is on course to break the previous record low set in 2007.

Satellite monitoring by the NSIDC in Boulder, Colorado, shows that the melting of sea ice has been unusually fast this year, with as much as 40,000 sq km now disappearing daily.

The melt season started almost a month later than normal at the end of March and is not expected to end until September.

Meanwhile, research from the polar science centre at the University of Washington suggests that the volume of sea ice in March 2010 was 20,300 cubic km, 38% below the 1979 level when records began.

Global surface temperatures may also be at a record high, according to leading climate scientist James Hansen and colleagues at the National Aeronautic Space Administration (Nasa).

In a paper which is yet to be peer-reviewed but has been submitted to the journal Reviews of Geophysics, they suggest that the Earth has been 0.65C warmer over the past 12 months than during the 1951 to 1980 mean, and that the global temperature for 2010 will exceed the 2005 record.

Hansen, credited with being one of the first scientists to study climate change, dismisses sceptics' claims that global warming "stopped" in 1998.

"Record high global temperature during the period with instrumental data was reached in 2010," he writes.

"It is likely that the 2010 global surface temperature ... will be a record.

"Global warming on decadal timescales is continuing without let-up ... we conclude that there has been no reduction in the global warming trend of 0.15-0.2C/decade that began in the late 1970s."

The Nasa research backs up findings by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), the US national climate monitoring service that measures global temperatures by satellite. This has recorded the hottest ever first four months of a year.

As a result of high sea surface temperatures, the Atlantic hurricane season – which officially started this week – is expected to be one of the most intense in years.

Last week NOAA predicted 14 to 23 named storms, including eight to 14 hurricanes – three to seven of which were likely to be "major", with winds of at least 111mph.

This is compared to an average six-month season of 11 named storms, six of which become hurricanes, two of them major.

The review will examine a potential shortage of resources including timber. Peter Essick/Aurora/Getty Images

Ministers have ordered a review of looming global shortages of resources, from fish and timber to water and precious metals, amid mounting concern that the problem could hit every sector of the economy.

The study has been commissioned following sharp rises in many commodity prices on the world markets and recent riots in some countries over food shortages.

There is also evidence that some nations are stockpiling important materials, buying up key producers and land and restricting exports in an attempt to protect their own businesses from increasingly fierce global competition.

Several research projects have also warned of a pending crisis in natural resources, such as water and wildlife, which have suffered dramatic losses due to over-use, pollution, habitat loss, and, increasingly, changes caused by global warming.

Professor Bob Watson, the chief scientist for the Department for Food, Environment and Rural Affairs, the leading department in the initiative, said every sector of the British economy was directly or indirectly vulnerable to future shortages.

These could be caused either by resources running out or becoming harder to access because of geopolitical factors from war to tighter environmental regulation on resources such as timber and palm oil – the latter being found in an estimated one in 10 products, from chocolate to cosmetics, sold in Britain.

"One of the roles of government is to provide information ... come up with a shared vision of moving forward and working with the private sector so we have competitiveness, a viable economy moving forward," Watson said.

AEA, the consultancy commissioned to carry out the study, said resources at risk included timber, water, fish, precious metals and minerals such as phosphorus, which is widely used in fertiliser.

One area of particular concern is "rare earth elements", important for defence and many green technologies from low-energy lightbulbs to wind turbines, as well as industries as varied as electronics and lasers, film and lighting, aircraft engines, nuclear reactors, and pain-relieving drugs, Phil Dolley, AEA's resource efficiency director, said.

Elsewhere, the US, the EU and Mexico have announced that they want to bring a World Trade Organisation case against Chinese restrictions on exports of nine key raw materials, including coke, bauxite, magnesium and fluorspar, all important for producing steel, aluminium and other chemicals.

Resources under scrutiny by the UK government do not include the already heavily studied oil industry, nor ecosystem services such as flood defences, but the range was still "vast", Dolley, said.

"It's a hot topic because other countries are also thinking of this [and] doing a lot of work," he added.

For years, experts have warned of the threat of peak oil to both the world economy and international political stability if countries go to war to secure access to fossil fuels.

However, there is now also increasing concern about a range of other resources, including a report by the World Business Council for Sustainable Development in December that the European commission has commissioned a review of 49 strategically important resources it believes are at risk.

Among the countries known to be stockpiling resources, Japan has said it is storing supplies of seven rare metals it believes are "essential to modern life and industry".

Writing in the Wall Street Journal earlier this month, James Bacchus, the chairman of the WTO's appelate body, said China was also "hoarding rare elements and other raw materials", but so were many other countries and there had also been a "sharp increase" in actions to protect national resources worldwide.

The international affairs thinktank Chatham House, which is carrying out its own review into the resource crunch, has also compiled a list of deals signed by Chinese state-owned companies for special access to oil and gas reserves and the purchase of stakes in oil and coal producers covering South America, Australia, Russia and the Middle East.

The Guardian has also reported on the growing trend for buying land in African countries to gain access to water and space for crops – particularly by Chinese and Middle Eastern companies, sometimes backed by their governments.

However there is not yet firm evidence that many resources seen to be at risk will run out or be disrupted, or cannot be replaced or supplemented by new supplies, Bernice Lee, Chatham House's research director for energy, environment and resource governance, said.

For example, lithium – which will be increasingly in demand for electric vehicle batteries – is mostly mined in Bolivia and Chile, but there are vast supplies elsewhere if the technology can be found to extract it at a reasonable cost, Lee said.

"It [the resource issue] is important because it's seen to be important – countries are already imposing policies," she added.

AEA's initial report is due to be completed in the autumn, Dolley said.

In a written statement to the Guardian, the Department of Business, Innovation and Skills, which is also on the report's steering group, said: "The Department for Business looks forward to reading the report from the AEA on the future of material resources.

"It is important to assess the long-term viability of resources to help protect businesses in the future."